Research

Spatio-temporal analysis of COVID-19 cases to inform scaling down of confinement measures as well as reactive strategies onward

A modelling analysis

Women wearing a mask and buying
Photo: Anna Shvets
Duration
04/05/2020 - 31/08/2020
Coordinator
Carlos Chaccour

The COVID-19 pandemic has now spread to almost all countries around the world. The response in almost all countries in Europe has been to implement a series of “non-pharmaceutical interventions” (NPIs) – including a banning of mass gatherings, closure of schools and universities, and more general restrictions on populations movements including full lockdowns. In most countries, we now have evidence to show that these NPIs have significantly reduced transmission such that the reproductive number – the average number of new infections generated by each initial infection – is close to or just below the threshold value of 1 required to bring the epidemic under control (Flaxman et al. 2020). However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to how these measures can be relaxed in the coming weeks and months whilst ensuring there are no rebound epidemics.

One of the proposed methods for relaxing existing interventions is to restrict movements to a smaller subset of the population. Two approaches are possible, alone or in tandem:

  • Restrict the movement of those at highest risk from severe disease – essentially shielding this population whilst allowing a degree of ongoing transmission in the lower risk population
  • Using app-based technology, combined with rapid testing, to rapidly isolate cases and their contacts.

The detailed data collected by the Catalonian government provide the opportunity to better understand the impact of these two approaches.

Our Team

Coordinator

  • Carlos Chaccour
    Carlos Chaccour Assistant Research Professor. BOHEMIA Chief Scientific Officer

ISGlobal involved staff

Other projects

See Past Projects

COVID-PREG

Eficacia de hidroxicloroquina en la prevención de la infección por SARS-CoV-2 y de la gravedad de la enfermedad de COVID-19 durante el embarazo

COMBACTE

Combating Bacterial Resistance In Europe

COMBACTE-CARE

Combatting Bacterial Resistance in Europe - Carbapenem Resistance

Xpatial-TB

Improved case detection through TB contact risk stratification by Xpert results and spatial parameters in Mozambique

WHIP3TB

Evaluation of the effect of weekly high dose rifapentine and isoniazid (3HP) vs periodic 3HP vs 6H for preventing TB among HIV-positive individuals

VINCI

Optimizing provider-initiated HIV testing, linkage, and retention in care in the district of Manhiça, Mozambique

INTE-AFRICA

Integrating and decentralizing diabetes and hypertension services in Africa

AVATAR

Searching the hidden: evaluating dengue, chikungunya and Zika autochthonous transmission in the city of Barcelona.