Approaching the Edge: What We Learned at the 2nd Global Tipping Points Conference

The 2nd Tipping Points Conference warned that key climate systems approach collapse—with serious health risks—but action can still change the course.

From Greenland’s melting ice to the Amazon’s growing fragility, the 2nd Global Tipping Points Conference (Exeter, UK, July 2025) sent a stark message: humanity is fast approaching irreversible planetary thresholds. Hosted by the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute alongside the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and the Max Planck Institute of Geoanthropology, this international gathering brought together leading scientists and experts to assess how close we really are to some of Earth’s most dangerous tipping points, and what can still be done.

Four Systems at Highest Risk

New evidence presented at the conference suggests that the West Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet, the Amazon rainforest and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are worryingly close to breaching critical transition thresholds than previously thought. Tipping points for these systems could potentially be crossed before the end of this century under the current path of greenhouse gas emissions, triggering widespread environmental, economic and health consequences.

• A new study using satellite data reported a substantial increase in surface salinity across the Southern Ocean, which signals that warmer waters reach the surface layer of the ocean and have contributed to sea ice melting near Antarctica since 2015.
• In addition, sea ice in the region has been in systematic decline since 2016 and sea ice equivalent to the size of Greenland has melted during this period, the biggest environmental change on Earth at the moment.
• Meanwhile, the AMOC - one of the Earth’s key ocean currents - is projected to transition to an extremely weak state or to collapse just after the year 2100 under the high-emissions scenario, and possibly even under more moderate future scenarios. Therefore, it cannot be considered a low-probability scenario anymore, and it is even more alarming that there are indications for an even earlier collapse before 2100.
• The Amazon rainforest, too, may suffer large-scale dieback as early as at 1.9°C of global warming, far below the previously assumed threshold of 2°-4°C, due to the combined impact of climate change, land use and deforestation.

The Cost of Delay: Health, Governance and Global Inequity

Tipping points should not be seen as environmental phenomena in isolation - they have very serious implications for human health. Sea level rise, widespread food insecurity, forced displacement and new infectious disease risks are among the cascading consequences that tipping points could unleash.

There appear to be legal grounds to hold governments accountable and force them to mitigate climate change in ways that protect public health

A key takeaway from the conference: there appear to be legal grounds to hold governments accountable and force them to mitigate climate change in ways that protect public health. A growing body of legal scholarship supports the idea that states have a duty to align their emissions policies with a 1.5°C-compatible global carbon budget and keep global warming below 2°C, due to the harmful impact on health that certain climate tipping points may have.

Still, as many speakers emphasized, we are running out of time. A collective statement endorsed by the majority of conference participants called for “urgent, unprecedented action” from political leaders now to prevent climate tipping points and irreversible damages for humanity.

Hope in Action: Science, Society, and Positive Tipping Points

Encouraging signs came from the rapidly growing adoption of renewable energy and electric vehicles, showing that self-reinforcing "positive tipping points" are happening. But current progress is not fast enough and needs to be accelerated in the coming years to avoid catastrophic thresholds.

Scientific collaboration is also advancing. The launch of TIPMIP (Tipping Points Model Intercomparison Project) marks a key step forward. This new Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)-aligned initiative brings together climate modeling groups to study overshoot scenarios and tipping dynamics. Researchers from ISGlobal’s Climate and Planetary Change Hub are contributing to TIPMIP through the EU-funded TipESM project, analyzing how the Amazon forest destabilization in certain regions and under the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation might increase pathogen spillover risks - a concern at the intersection of human and planetary health.

A Call for Smarter Communication and Stronger Governance

Participants also agreed that the scientific community must do more to communicate the dangers and urgency of tipping points to the public, policymakers and the media. At the same time, the media is also currently getting it wrong and needs to stop giving equal opportunities to non-scientists to express opinions on this topic. In addition, it needs to focus on educating people about what is known about climate change, and to highlight the connection between climate change and health. The concept of uncertainty should be carefully explained, and should not continue to be a reason for politicians “to kick the can down the road”. Misinformation and underestimation of climate risk, especially by actors in finance and insurance, must also be addressed.

The media is currently getting it wrong and needs to stop giving equal opportunities to non-scientists to express opinions on this topic

There was a discussion over the role of geoengineering, which remains controversial. While some argue that options like solar radiation management warrant exploration, the climate tipping points community emphasized that emissions cuts must come first and foremost, and that geoengineering is associated with conflicting and unknown outcomes, as well as carries complex ethical, justice and governance risks. Only binding (and not voluntary) emissions cuts could lead to meaningful results, and this should be a key message and outset point at the coming COP30 meeting in Brazil.

The window to act is closing. But if we embrace science-based policy, legal accountability, and deep cooperation, we still have a chance to steer the planet toward a more favourable and stable future

Importantly, the conference encouraged rethinking not just technologies, but governance systems themselves. One example came from Malaysia, where a planetary health approach is now embedded in national development planning and undergraduate curricula - showing what is possible with political will and local leadership. In addition, an initiative was presented for building a new Global Constitution to prevent a civilization collapse. Anyone can contribute to it here. Participants at the conference shared the belief that global governance is necessary to implement policies to stop climate change. However, to get there, it might be smart to think about local and community governance first to prevent tipping points that will later galvanize and create a feedback loop towards the international governance that is needed.

The bottom line?

Earth system risks are now at highly alarming levels. As Johan Rockström and others stressed, they now meet the criteria for high-impact global risks, threatening to “kill or seriously harm more than 10% of the human population”. At 1.5°C of warming five and up to seven climate tipping elements are at risk, we are dangerously close to these. Over 2°C we enter a very high risk zone for tipping elements. The window to act is closing. But if we embrace science-based policy, legal accountability, and deep cooperation, we still have a chance to steer the planet toward a more favourable and stable future.