Our Team

Desislava Petrova

Desislava Petrova

Postdoctoral Fellow Climate & Health

Desislava’s main area of research is climate dynamics, predictability and change. She focuses on understanding, modelling and predicting climate variability and climate phenomena such as El Niño Southern Oscillation. She holds a PhD in climate dynamics and a Master’s in Natural Hazards (with a focus on oceanic fluid dynamics).

In ISGlobal she is a member of the Climate and Health programme. She has studied the impacts of weather and climate on the spread of infectious diseases such as dengue fever. Within the Blue Action and EARLY-ADAPT projects she has also worked on seasonal climate and weather forecasts, contributing to the development of an early warning system for temperature-attributable mortality in the European region. 

Lines of research

  • Tropical climate, air-sea interactions, ENSO origins, predictability and impacts over various regions of the globe
  • Decadal climate variability and change
  • Impacts of climate change and rising temperatures on ecosystems, human health and society in general

Main publications

  • Desislava Petrova, Joan Ballester, Siem Jan Koopman, Xavier Rodó, Multi-year statistical prediction of ENSO enhanced by the tropical Pacific observing system, Journal of Climate 33.1 (2020): 163-174.
  • Desislava Pterova, Siem Jan Koopman, Joan Ballester, Xavier Rodó, Improving the long-lead predictability of El Niño using a novel forecasting scheme based on a dynamic components model, Climate Dynamics 48.3-4 (2017): 1249-1276.
  • Desislava Petrova, Xavier Rodó, Rachel Sippy, Joan Ballester, Raul Mejía, Efraín Beltrán-Ayala, Mercy J. Borbor-Cordova, G. Mauricio Vallejo, Alfredo J. Olmedo, Anna M. Stewart-Ibarra, Rachel Lowe, The 2018-2019 weak El Niño: predicting the risk of a dengue outbreak in Machala, Ecuador, International Journal of Climatology (2020).
  • Rachel Lowe, Anna Stewart-Ibarra, Desislava Petrova, Markel García-Díez, Mercy Borbor-Cordova, Raul Mejía, Mary Regato, Xavier Rodó, Climate services for health: predicting the evolution of the 2016 dengue season in Machala, Ecuador, Lancet Planetary Health 1.4 (2017): e142-e151.
  • Desislava Petrova, Rachel Lowe, Anna Stewart-Ibarra, Joan Ballester, Siem Jan Koopman, Xavier Rodó, Sensitivity of large dengue epidemics in Ecuador to long-lead predictions of El Niño, Climate Services 15 (2019): 100096.