Equip ISGlobal

Davide Rasella holds the position of ICREA Research Professor and Head of the Global Health Impact Assessment and Evaluation Group (IMPACThealth) Group. He is a social epidemiologist with solid expertise in health impact assessment and evaluation methods, with a primary focus on mitigating poverty-related diseases and reducing health disparities in Low and Middle-Income Countries.

He has earned both an MSc and a PhD in Public Health from the Institute of Collective Health in Salvador (Brazil). He also holds a Diploma in Tropical Biomedicine from the Antwerp Institute of Tropical Medicine (Belgium) and has undergone training in mathematical modeling at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (UK).

For more than two decades, he has been dedicated to global health, with a focus on vulnerable populations in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa. His work spans field epidemiology in humanitarian emergencies with non-governmental organizations such as Doctors Without Borders, as well as scientific research evaluating the health impacts of nationwide policies for international organizations, including the World Health Organization and the United Nations Development Programme, as well as ministries of health and social protection and research institutions in low- and middle-income countries.

His main research interest has been the development of methodologies to evaluate the effects of social determinants, conditional cash transfers, humanitarian and development assistance, and primary health care. 

During his career, he has conducted numerous health impact assessments and evaluations in the areas of child and maternal health, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and other poverty-related diseases and conditions, for which he has developed and applied cutting-edge methodologies for retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting.

He is currently leading large multicountry projects spanning all low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), as well as regional and national evaluations across Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, including Brazil, Ecuador, Colombia, Argentina, Mexico, Bolivia, Mozambique, Gabon, Ethiopia, and Uganda.

Línies de recerca

• Methods of retrospective (ex-post) and prospective (ex-ante) health impact assessment and evaluation
• Compartmental models, microsimulation, and other forecasting models
• Impact of social determinants of health and poverty-relief interventions
• Impact of healthcare systems and primary health care
• HIV/AIDS, Tuberculosis, and other poverty-related diseases
• Child and maternal health

Publicacions principals

• Rasella D, Aquino R, Santos C; Paes-Sousa R, Barreto ML. Effect of a conditional cash transfer programme on childhood mortality: a nationwide analysis of Brazilian municipalities. The Lancet 2013; 382: 57–64.
• Rasella D, Silva NJ. Why cash transfers matter for global health-now more than ever. Lancet. 2025 Dec 6;406(10520):2606-2608. 
• Rasella D, de Oliveira Ferreira de Sales L, Cavalcanti DM, Nhacolo A, Monti C. Global health after USAID cuts - Authors' reply. Lancet. 2025 Dec 6;406(10520):2629-2630.
• Cavalcanti DM, de Oliveira Ferreira de Sales L, da Silva AF,..., Rasella D. Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis. Lancet. 2025 Jul 19;406(10500):283-294.
• Rasella D, Harhay MO, Pamponet ML, Aquino R, Barreto ML. Impact of primary health care on mortality from heart and cerebrovascular diseases in Brazil: a nationwide analysis of longitudinal data. BMJ 2014 Jul 3; 349:g4014.
• Cavalcanti DM, Ordoñez JA, da Silva AF, ..., Rasella D. Health effects of the Brazilian Conditional Cash Transfer programme over 20 years and projections to 2030: a retrospective analysis and modelling study. Lancet Public Health. 2025 Jul;10(7):e548-e558.
• Jesus GS, Gestal PFPS, Silva AF, ..., Rasella D. Effects of conditional cash transfers on tuberculosis incidence and mortality according to race, ethnicity and socioeconomic factors in the 100 Million Brazilian Cohort. Nature Medicine. 2025 Feb;31(2):653-662.
• Jesus GS, Pescarini JM, Silva AF, .... Rasella D. The effect of primary health care on tuberculosis in a nationwide cohort of 7·3 million Brazilian people: a quasi-experimental study. Lancet Glob Health 2022; 10: e390–7.
• Moncayo A, Cavalcanti DM, Ordonez JA, .., Rasella D. Can primary health care mitigate the effects of economic crises on child health in Latin America? An integrated multicountry evaluation and forecasting analysis. Lancet Glob Health 2024; 12: e938–46  
• Silva NJ, Paixão ES, Brachowicz N, ..., Rasella D. Early life exposure to economic shocks and association with childhood malnutrition: a pooled analysis of 230 nationwide surveys from 68 low-income and middle-income countries. Lancet Glob Health. 2025 Aug;13(8):e1367-e1377.
• Silva AF, Lua I, Jesus GS,..., Rasella D. Intersectional impact of cash transfers on AIDS among 12.3 million Brazilian women. Nat Hum Behav. 2025 Dec;9(12):2576-2588. 
• da Silva AF, Anderle RVR, Sibils GB, .., Rasella D. Impact of two decades of humanitarian and development assistance and the projected mortality consequences of current defunding to 2030: retrospective evaluation and forecasting analysis. Lancet Glob Health. 2026 May;14(5):e690-e701.