Climate Tipping Points and the Right to a Habitable Planet

Climate tipping points are not merely environmental crises: their activation could endanger numerous human rights – to a healthy environment, life, health, food, water, culture, and self-determination. They additionally pose serious threats to political and civil rights, democratic governance and the rights of future generations to a habitable planet.

The global average temperature has already temporarily exceeded the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels, a central limit of the Paris Agreement. Crossing this level permanently increases the risk of triggering major climate tipping points. Humanity appears to have taken stable climate conditions for granted.

Recent landmark international rulings, among which the 2025 International Court of Justice Advisory Opinion on climate change, confirm that States are legally bound to prevent foreseeable harm to the global climate system. Moreover, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target has now solidified into binding international law, even as the global average temperature has already exceeded this threshold for three consecutive years.

The right to self-determination is now threatened by greenhouse gas emissions from high-emitting States. As climate change submerges islands, thaws the Arctic, and renders regions uninhabitable, it is breaking the promise of self-determination. What is needed is a decisive legal movement to drive climate action, prioritizing survival, dignity, equal rights, and a habitable planet for all.

When changes to the climate system become irreversible

The EU-funded TipESM project is generating critical data on early warning signs of climate tipping points such as the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) or the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, and their impacts on ecosystems, health, society, and habitability.

Extreme weather events like the 2024 Valencia floods (12% more intense due to climate change) and 2025 LA fires (36% more likely as a result of climate change) are making the reality of climate change impossible to ignore. Meanwhile, climate tipping points, irreversible shifts in the Earth system, are approaching. The AMOC, Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, and the Amazon rainforest are among the most concerning.

If the Amazon collapses, for example, it could add up to 0.5°C of additional warming. The AMOC may stop by century's end, with devastating effects on Europe.

If the Amazon collapses, for example, it could add up to 0.5°C of additional warming. The AMOC may stop by century's end, with devastating effects on Europe. Greenland holds enough ice for 7 metres of sea level rise. Once these systems tip, there's no going back. Cutting greenhouse gases can still reduce the future likelihood of climate extremes. However, once certain tipping points are crossed, they will trigger a new set of climate extremes that we cannot reverse, even if we later lower emissions. That's why tipping points pose a greater threat than climate change on its own.

The tipping of the Amazon rainforest

Climate change, combined with human-driven Amazon degradation (already 38% degraded and ~17% cleared), could push the forest toward partial or complete collapse, turning lush rainforest into savanna. This tipping point may occur at 2-4°C of warming, making the Paris Agreement's 1.5-2°C target a safe boundary, only if additional deforestation stays below 20%. An Amazon collapse would threaten water and food security, increase warming, drive species extinction, spread infectious diseases, and trigger mass migration and political crises. Advanced models already suggest partial dieback may begin this century, although regional dynamics remain uncertain.

No one should be expected to live under deadly heat

A fundamental question also emerges: “What legal framework exists for loss of habitability caused by climate tipping points or extreme heat?” While some low-lying island nations have relocation plans tied to sea-level rise, extreme heat, a major driver of climate-related deaths, remains dangerously under-monitored, especially in the Global South. In spring 2024, West Africa and the Sahel experienced unprecedented heatwaves, with half the continent seeing anomalies of 10°C above average. Yet we know little about the human impact.

Adaptation is feasible at 1.5°C, difficult and costly at 2°C, and beyond 3°C we hit a hard adaptation limit or a tipping point. Current pledges put us on track for 2.6-2.8°C of warming by late century.

For example, one African region recorded a full month above 30°C Wet Bulb Global Temperature (WBGT; which is considered very dangerous), with half the days exceeding 33°C WBGT (which is considered extremely dangerous). By comparison, Paris's 2003 heatwave, which caused 1,000 excess deaths, never crossed 30°C WBGT. Heat deaths in African nations remain largely uncounted.

At 3°C of warming, 1.7 billion people, mainly in West Africa, the Arabian Peninsula, Northern India, and Southeast Asia, would face at least one week per year of deadly heat stress. Impacts vary by age, health, work, acclimatization, and access to water. Having this in consideration, scientists and legal experts must work together to define vulnerability thresholds and assess survivability. No one should be expected to live under deadly heat. On the current emissions path, certain areas will exceed survivable thresholds, leading to higher mortality, illness, livestock loss, and crop failure. Better heat-health warning systems are therefore urgently needed. Adaptation is feasible at 1.5°C, difficult and costly at 2°C, and beyond 3°C we hit a hard adaptation limit or a tipping point. Current pledges put us on track for 2.6-2.8°C of warming by late century.

The right to a dignified, livable existence

As Elisa Morgera (UN Special Rapporteur on Climate Change) notes, although scientists and legal professionals operate under different standards of certainty, international law clarifies that all States have an obligation to apply the highest ambition to prevent significant environmental harm.

Tipping points have measurable impacts on all human rights, among them access to water, food, health and dignified, livable existence, which are threatened beyond precedent. States must therefore monitor these risks to develop targeted protections.

Even if we don't know exactly when tipping points will be crossed, there is enough evidence that we are heading toward irreversible, significant harm and we should act now. The precautionary principle applies. Moreover, different climate tipping points are intricately connected, meaning their impacts transcend borders and challenge traditional domestic versus extraterritorial human rights frameworks.

Breaking the addiction

A rational person slows down in the face of danger, but an addict keeps going. This powerful metaphor, used by Benjamin Schachter (from the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights) highlights our addiction to fossil fuels. The AMOC and Amazon are Earth's vital organs –if we damage them irreversibly, we head toward a "life-support planet" or a fundamentally different state of being.

And yet we are not reducing emissions. Human rights offer a framework to turn science into better policy. Even if some tipping points have already been triggered, we can still change course, provided decision-making is informed by human rights. The precautionary principle says higher risk demands greater prevention. Yet we pour money into humanitarian disasters while neglecting far more effective and economical prevention. Human rights-based measures are more sustainable. We need to break our addiction to the fossil fuel economy before large parts of the planet cease to be safely habitable.

[This article draws on discussions held during a side event on “Human Rights and Climate Tipping Points” at the 61st session of the UN Human Rights Council (March 2026), with the participation of the UN Special Rapporteur on Climate Change and Human Rights, as well as scientists and legal experts from the Climate and Planetary Change Hub at ISGlobal, the IRD France, the UK Met Office, Just Atonement Inc. and the UN Human Rights Office.]

The event was organized within the EU-funded TipESM project and the recording can be watched here: