Investigación - Nuestro equipo

Peter Kirwan is a postdoctoral researcher in the IMPACThealth group at ISGlobal, where he applies advanced biostatistical methods to global health policy questions. He completed his PhD in Biostatistics at the University of Cambridge in 2024, focussing on multi-state models to estimate infectious disease burden.

He has held senior scientific roles across academia and public health, including at the MRC Biostatistics Unit, Public Health England, and the UK Health Security Agency. His modelling of COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness contributed to UK national decision making during the pandemic. More recently, he led the development of HIV incidence estimation methods adopted by the UK Health Security Agency as the official approach for tracking progress toward national HIV elimination targets. He has contributed to international HIV surveillance standards across Europe and has authored more than 40 peer-reviewed publications.

In his current role, he develops microsimulation models to project the health effects of changes in Official Development Assistance in low- and middle-income countries, with the aim of generating evidence to inform global health priorities.

Líneas de investigación

• Modelos de microsimulación.
• Impacto de las intervenciones para reducir la pobreza.
• Modelos multistate.
• Epidemiología del VIH.

Principales publicaciones

• Kirwan, P.D., Foulkes, S., Munro, K., et al. (2024) Protection of vaccine boosters and prior infection against mild/asymptomatic and moderate COVID-19 infection in the UK SIREN healthcare worker cohort: October 2023 to March 2024, J. Infect., 89 (5): 106293. doi:10.1016/j.jinf.2024.106293.
• Kirwan, P.D., Hall, V.J., Foulkes, S., et al. (2024) Effect of second booster vaccinations and prior infection against SARS-CoV-2 in the UK SIREN healthcare worker cohort, Lancet Reg Health Eur., 36: 100809. doi:10.1016/j.lanepe.2023.100809.
• Kirwan, P.D., Charlett, A., Birrell, P., et al. (2022) Trends in COVID-19 hospital outcomes in England before and after vaccine introduction, a cohort study. Nat. Commun., 13(1): 4834. doi:10.1038/s41467-022-32458-y.
• Kirwan, P.D., Croxford, S., Aghaizu, A., et al. (2022) Re-assessing the late HIV diagnosis surveillance definition in the era of increased and frequent testing, HIV Med., 23(11): 1127–1142. doi:10.1111/hiv.13394.
• Kirwan, P. D., Hibbert, M., Kall, M., Nambiar, K. et al. (2021). ‘HIV prevalence and HIV clinical outcomes of transgender and gender-diverse people in England’. HIV Med. 22 (2), pp. 131–139. DOI: 10.1111/hiv.12987.